Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup menguat yang dipicu oleh data pertumbuhan ekonomi AS yang lebih baik dari perkiraan, data infasi PCE prices index yang sesuai dengan perkiraan, serta harapan akan penurunan suku bunga The Fed pada September mendatang. Indeks PCE prices bulan Juni tercatat sebesar 0,1% mom, sesuai dengan estimasi sehingga secara tahunan turun menjadi 2,5% yoy dari bulan sebelumnya 2,6% yoy. Untuk indeks PCE prices core juga sesuai dengan estimasi pada level 0,2% mom dan secara tahunan stagnan pada 2,6% yoy. Data inflasi pilihan The Fed ini memicu meningkatnya perkiraan pasar bahwa The Fed dapat menurunkan suku bunga sebanyak tiga kali pada tahun ini, yaitu pada bulan September, November dan Desember. Hal ini mendorong penurunan yield US-Treasury dan memicu kenaikan harga emas. Sedangkan harga minyak mentah melemah akibat kekhawatiran menurunnya pemintaan dari China.

Pada pekan ini pasar akan mencermati pertemuan The Fed pada 30-31 Juli 2024. Data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya consumer confidence, ADP Employment change, indeks ISM Manufakturing, nonfarm payrolls dan unemployment rate. Dari domestik akan dirilis data inflasi bulan Juli dan indeks PMI manufaktur.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 26 Juli 2024 ditutup menguat 0,66% pada level 7288. Saham sektor energi membukukan kenaikan terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor teknologi mengalami koreksi terbesar. Investor asing mencatatkan net buy Rp366,69 miliar termasuk transaksi di pasar non regular. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7250/7220 dan resistance 7310/7340. Stock pick: BBRI, BMRI, BBCA, ADRO, PTBA, ASII, ISAT

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