Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup variatif, di mana indeks Dow Jones ditutup menguat, sedangkan indeks S&P500 dan Nasdaq Composite ditutup melemah. Namun ketiga indeks utama tersebut menguat selama pekan lalu, yang didorong oleh data ekonomi AS yang bagus. Menyusul data PDB AS yang kuat sehari sebelumnya, indeks PCE prices bulan Desember menunjukkan penurunan serta di bawah perkiraan untuk inflasi tahunan. Indeks PCE prices inti bulan Desember 2023 sebesar 0,2% mom dan 2,9% yoy, dibandingkan estimasi yang sebesar 0,2% mom dan 3% yoy serta bulan sebelumnya yang sebesar 0,1% mom dan 3,2% yoy. Data PDB dan indeks PCE prices tersebut meningkatkan harapan investor bahwa ekonomi AS terhindar dari resesi dan terjadi penurunan inflasi. Sementara itu harga minyak mentah berlanjut menguat di tengah meningkatnya harapan akan kenaikan permintaan minyak seiring dengan data ekonomi AS yang kuat serta adanya stimulus ekonomi di China.

Pada pekan ini pasar akan menantikan hasil pertemuan The Fed pada Selasa-Rabu. Sedangkan data ekonomi yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya indeks harga rumah, consumer confidence, ADP Employment, indeks ISM manufacturing, nonfarm payrolls dan unemployment rate. Sedangkan dari domestik, data ekonomi yang akan dirilis diantaranya indeks PMI manufaktur dan inflasi.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 26 Januari 2024 ditutup melemah 0,57% pada level 7137. Saham sektor transportasi mengalami koreksi terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor properti membukukan penguatan terbesar. Investor asing mencatatkan net sell Rp1,054 triliun termasuk transaksi di pasar non reguler. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7100/7045 dan resistance 7170/7200. Stock pick: BBNI, BMRI, TLKM, ADRO, SMGR, INTP, INDF, MBMA, INKP

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