Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu melemah signifikan setelah dalam pidatonya di konferensi Jackson Hole, Chairman The Fed Jerome Powell menyatakan tidak akan mundur dari kebijakan untuk memerangi inflasi. Powell mengisyaratkan bahwa The Fed akan terus menaikkan suku bunga untuk menurunkan laju inflasi, sehingga memadamkan harapan investor bahwa The Fed akan mulai memperlambat kenaikan suku bunganya. Powell juga menyatakan bahwa ekonomi AS membutuhkan kebijakan moneter yang ketat untuk beberapa waktu sebelum inflasi terkendali. Sehingga ekonomi akan lambat, pasar kerja yang lebih lemah serta rasa sakit pada rumah tangga dan bisnis. Pasar menantikan pertemuan The Fed pada September mendatang, apakah The Fed akan kembali menaikkan suku bunga sebesar 0,75%. Sementara itu indeks PCE prices bulan JUli turun 0,1% mom, sehingga secara yoy menjadi 6,3% dari bulan sebelumnya 6,8% yoy. Untuk PCE inti sebesar 0,1% mom dan 4,6% yoy.

Data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya indeks harga rumah, consumer confidence, ADP Employment change, ISM manufacturing index, construction spending, nonfarm payrolls dan unemployment rate. Sedangkan dari domestik, akan dirilis data inflasi Agustus pada hari Kamis pekan ini.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 26 Agustus 2022 ditutup melemah 0,54% pada level 7135. Saham sektor teknologi mengalami koreksi terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor energi membukukan kenaikan terbesar. Investor asing net sell Rp164,24 miliar, termasuk transaksi di pasar non reguler. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7080/7020 dan resistance 7150/7200. Stock pick: BBCA, BBNI, LSIP, ESSA, INKP, TKIM

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