Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada perdagangan Kamis ditutup menguat setelah bergerak fluktuatif merespon keputusan The Fed menaikkan suku bunga dan prediksi tren kenaikan suku bunga akan segera berakhir. Saham sektor teknologi membukukan penguatan terbesar, seiring dengan penurunan yield obligasi pemerintah AS.

Sesuai konsensus, The Fed tetap menaikkan suku bunga acuan sebesar 0,25% menjadi pada level kisaran 4,75%-5% pada pertemuan Selasa-Rabu pekan ini, meskipun terdapat gejolak di sistem perbankan akibat tren kenaikan suku bunga. Namun sejumlah pejabat The Fed memperkirakan hanya akan ada satu kenaikan suku bunga lagi pada tahun ini, meskipun tidak akan menurunkan suku bunga acuan. Terminal rate, atau level di mana The Fed tidak akan menaikkan suku bunga acuan lagi, diperkirakan pada level 5,1% atau sama dengan pada kisaran 5%-5,25%. Untuk tahun 2024, suku bunga The Fed diproyeksikan akan turun pada level 4,3%, sedikit lebih tinggi dari prediksi sebelumnya yang berada pada level 4,1%. The Fed juga memperbarui proyeksi data ekonomi AS, di mana inflasi diperkirakan pada level 3,3% akhir tahun ini, lebih tinggi dari proyeksi sebelumnya 3,1%. Tingkat pengangguran pada 4,5% dan pertumbuhan ekonomi 0,4%.

IHSG pada perdagangan Selasa 21 Maret 2023 ditutup menguat 1,2% pada level 6691. Saham sektor infrastruktur membukukan penguatan terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor kesehatan menjadi satu-satunya sektor yang melemah. Investor asing mencatatkan net buy Rp494,66 miliar termasuk transaksi di pasar non reguler. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6630/6600 dan resistance 6720/6750. Stock pick: BBNI, BBCA, BMRI, TLKM, ISAT, EXCL, ICBP, SMGR, JSMR, ADRO, ADMR

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