Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street kembali ditutup melemah masih disebabkan oleh kekhawatiran akan pengetatan kebijakan moneter The Fed yang berlanjut. Saham sektor properti, kesehatan dan komunikasi mengalami koreksi terbesar. Sedangkan saham sektor energi membukukan kenaikan terbesar, seiring dengan kenaikan harga minyak mentah. Penguatan harga minyak mentah disebabkan oleh adanya komentar dari Arab Saudi mengenai potensi pemangkasan produksi minyak mentah oleh OPEC+ untuk menstabilkan harga. Selain itu, prospek penurunan cadangan minyak AS juga mendorong kenaikan harga minyak mentah. Harga emas rebound karena turunnya dollar AS dan yield US-Treasury.

Dari domestik, kemarin secara tak terduga BI menaikkan suku bunga BI7DRR sebesar 0,25% menjadi 3,75%. Untuk suku bunga deposit facility dan lending facility juga naik 0,25% masing-masing menjadi 3% dan 4,5%. Ini merupakan kenaikan yang pertama kalinya setelah selama 17 bulan berturut-turut, BI mempertahankan BI7DRR pada level 3,5%. Kenaikan suku bunga ini merupakan langkah antisipasi BI dalam menghadapi ekspektasi kenaikan inflasi akibat kenaikan harga BBM non subsidi dan fluktuasi kenaikan harga bahan makanan, serta untuk menjaga stabilitas fundamental nilai tukar rupiah. BI menaikkan proyeksi inflasi tahun 2022 menjadi 5,24% yoy dari prediksi sebelumnya 4,6% yoy. Untuk inflasi inti diperkirakan di atas kisaran BI 4%, yaitu sekitar 4,15% yoy. Namun BI masih optimis dengan target pertumbuhan ekonomi yang diperkirakan cenderung di kisaran atas 4,5%-5,3% yoy, berdasarkan data PDB RI Q2/2022 yang tumbuh 5,44% yoy.

IHSG pada perdagangan Selasa 23 Agustus 2022 ditutup menguat 0,78% pada level 7163. Saham sektor energi membukukan kenaikan terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor transportasi menjadi satu-satunya sektor yang melemah. Investor asing net buy Rp500,27 miliar, termasuk transaksi di pasar non reguler. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7125/7080 dan resistance 7185/7230. Stock pick: BMRI, ASII, TLKM, PTBA, ADRO, UNTR, INDY, AKRA, MEDC, ELSA

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