Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah setelah The Fed kembali menaikkan suku bunga acuan sebesar 0,75% dan memprediksi akan masih ada kenaikan suku bunga dalam rangka untuk menurunkan laju inflasi. Kekhawatiran akan dampak kenaikan suku bunga yang agresif terhadap perlambatan ekonomi telah menjadi sentimen negatif bagi bursa saham akhir-akhir ini. The Fed juga mengindikasikan masih akan melanjutkan kenaikan suku bunga secara agresif hingga mencapai 4,4% hingga tahun depan. The Fed memprediksi bahwa untuk memerangi inflasi secara berkelanjutan suku bunga akan mencapai level 4,6%, di mana pada level tersebut The Fed akan menghentikan era kenaikan suku bunganya namun tidak berarti akan menurunkan suku bunga seperti yang diharapkan pasar. Yield US-Treasury kembali menguat, untuk tenor 2 tahun mencapai level 4,1% dan tenor 10 tahun mencapai 3,6%. The Fed memproyeksikan tingkat pengangguran akan naik pada level 4,4% dari level saat ini 3,7%. Pertumbuhan ekonomi AS tahun ini diproyeksikan oleh The Fed melambat pada level 0,2% dan meningkat pada tahun depan sebesar 1,8%. Proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun ini tersebut turun dari proyeksi sebelumnya 1,7%. Inflasi yang diukur oleh indeks PCE diproyeksikan turun pada level 5,4% tahun ini dari posisi Juli 6,3%. Inflasi diperkirakan akan mencapai level target The Fed 2% pada tahun 2025.

Dari domestik, pada hari ini pasar akan menantikan hasil RDG BI. IHSG pada perdagangan Rabu 21 September 2022 ditutup melemah 0,12% pada level 7188. Saham sektor properti mengalami koreksi terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor teknologi membukukan kenaikan terbesar. Investor asing net sell Rp911,89 miliar termasuk transaksi di pasar non regular. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7145/7075 dan resistance 7200/7230. Stock pick: BMRI, BBRI, BBNI, ASII, AKRA, ADRO, INCO, ANTM

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