Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah setelah bergerak fluktuatif akibat berlanjutnya kenaikan yield obligasi pemerintah AS. Pasar mencermati earning season dan pergerakan pasar obligasi. Sebelumnya indeks sempat menguat namun berbalik melemah akibat kenaikan yield obligasi. Yield US-Treasury dengan tenor 10 tahun naik pada level 4,239%, yang merupakan level tertinggi sejak tahun 2008. Kenaikan yield obligasi ini disebabkan oleh kekhawatiran pasar obligasi bahwa The Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga hingga 5% atau lebih pada tahun depan. Presiden The Fed Philadelphia berkomentar bahwa kenaikan suku bunga hanya sedikit berdampak terhadap penurunan inflasi, sehingga diperlukan kenaikan suku bunga lebih lanjut. Beberapa laporan keuangan emiten yang lebih baik dari estimasi, seperti AT&T dan IBM, membatasi pelemahan indeks lebih lanjut. Dollar AS menguat terhadap yen Jepang pada level tertinggi sejak tahun 1990. Sementara itu harga minyak mentah cenderung stagnan di tengah sentimen kekhawatiran akan resesi dan potensi kenaikan permintaan dari China. Harga emas berlanjut melemah akibat penguatan dollar AS dan yield US-Treasury.

Sesuai dengan konsensus pasar, BI menaikkan BI7DRR sebesar 0,5% menjadi pada level 4,75%. IHSG pada perdagangan Kamis 20 Oktober 2022 ditutup menguat 1,70% pada level 6977. Semua sektor menguat dengan kontribusi penguatan terbesar pada saham sektor energi. Investor asing net buy Rp874,15 miliar termasuk transaksi di pasar non regular. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6943/6890 dan resistance 6990/7025. Stock pick: BBNI, BBCA, BBRI, BMRI, ADRO, INDY, ITMG, INTP, SMGR, AALI, LSIP

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