Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup mix, dimana indeks Dow Jones dan S&P500 ditutup menguat, sedangkan Nasdaq Composite ditutup melemah. Indeks Dow Jones ditutup di atas level 40.000 untuk pertama kalinya. Sentimen positif pendorong penguatan indeks antara lain ekspektasi penurunan suku bunga The Fed tahun ini serta laporan keuangan emiten yang mayoritas berada di atas perkiraan. Namun penguatan indeks terbatas karena adanya komentar beberapa pejabat The Fed yang menyatakan bahwa bank sentral masih membutuhkan keyakinan bahwa inflasi terus menurun menuju target The Fed sebelum mulai menurunkan suku bunga dan belum pasti kapan penurunan suku bunga akan mulai dilakukan. Sementara itu bank sentral China mengumumkan stimulus untuk sektor properti, yaitu diantaranya menurunkan minimum uang muka KPR serta menurunkan batas bawah suku bunga KPR. Harga minyak mentah menguat seiring dengan ekspektasi kenaikan permintaan, seiring dengan stimulus dari China tersebut serta data industrial production China pada bulan April yang menguat dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya. Stimulus dari bank sentral China tersebut juga mendorong penguatan harga komoditas logam industri, termasuk nikel, tembaga dan emas.

Data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya existing home sales, FOMC Minutes dan new home sales. Dari domestik akan dirilis transaksi berjalan serta hasil Rapat Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 17 Mei 2024 ditutup menguat 0,97% pada level 7317. Sektor basic material membukukan penguatan terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor consumer noncyclical mengalami koreksi terbesar. Investor asing mencatatkan net buy Rp866,61 miliar termasuk transaksi di pasar non regular. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7298/7270 dan resistance 7350/7375. Stock pick: BBCA, BBRI, BBTN, ASII, PGAS, INCO, ANTM, TINS, NCKL, MBMA, HRUM

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