Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat dan indeks S&P500 kembali mencapai rekor tertinggi baru selama enam hari berturut-turut. Saham sektor energi membukukan kenaikan terbesar seiring dengan kenaikan harga minyak mentah WTI menguat di atas level USD75/barel, mencapai harga tertinggi sejak tahun 2018. Kenaikan harga minyak ini menjelang pertemuan OPEC+ pada hari Jumat yang akan memutuskan untuk mempertahankan atau menambah produksinya. Faktor positif juga berasal dari beberapa data indikator ekonomi AS. Data initial claims pekan lalu kembali turun menjadi 364 ribu dan lebih baik dari estimasi 400 ribu. Indeks ISM manufaktur bulan Juni turun pada level 62,1 dari 62,6, namun masih menunjukkan ekspansi ekonomi. Kongres menaikkan estimasi pertumbuhan ekonomi AS menjadi 7,4% tahun ini dan 2,8% per tahun hingga tahun 2025. Tingkat pengangguran diperkirakan berlanjut turun hingga level 4% tahun 2022 dan beberapa tahun kemudian. Tingkat inflasi indeks PCE diperkirakan meningkat menjadi 2,8% tahun ini.
IHSG pada perdagangan Kamis 1 Juli 2021 ditutup menguat 0,34% pada level 6005. Saham sektor kesehatan membukukan kenaikan terbesar. Investor asing net sell Rp171,53 miliar. Pemberlakukan PPKM Darurat pada 3-20 Juli, dikhawatirkan akan berdampak terhadap kinerja beberapa emiten, namun diperkirakan sudah diantisipasi oleh pasar sebelumnya. Selain itu dengan diberlakukan PPKM Darurat secara efektif diharapkan dapat menurunkan penambahan jumlah kasus baru Covid-19 di Indonesia yang saat ini terus mencapai rekor baru. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 5992/5950 dan resistance 6070/6114. Stock pick: ASII, BMRI, UNVR, JSMR, MEDC, PTBA

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