Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup menguat, namun selama sepekan ditutup melemah. Penguatan pada akhir pekan lalu diantaranya didorong oleh laporan keuangan Citigroup yang lebih baik dari estimasi, data penjualan ritel yang lebih baik dari perkiraan serta berkurangnya kecemasan bahwa The Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga sebesar 1% pada pertemuan pekan depan. Data penjualan ritel bulan Juni naik 1%, lebih baik dari bulan sebelumnya yang turun 0,1%, serta lebih baik dari estimasi yang sebesar 0,8%. Data indikator ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya housing starts, building permits dan existing home sales

Dari domestik, pada hari Kamis akan diumumkan hasil RDG BI mengenai kebijakan moneternya. Menurut konsensus, BI masih akan mempertahankan suku bunga BI7DRR karena inflasi inti Juni lalu yang sebesar 2,6% masih di kisaran target BI 2%-4% meskipun inflasi tahunan sudah di atas target tersebut. Jika The Fed menaikkan suku bunga 0,75%-1% pada pekan depan yang berpotensi membuat rupiah makin terdepresiasi dan jika inflasi inti RI pada Juli kembali meningkat, maka diperkirakan BI berpotensi dapat menaikkan suku bunga pada Agustus 2022.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 15 Juli 2022 ditutup melemah 0,57% pada level 6651. Saham sektor energi mencatatkan koreksi terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor keuangan membukukan penguatan terbesar. Investor asing net buy Rp57,21 miliar, termasuk transaksi di pasar non reguler. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6600/6560 dan resistance 6725/6760. Stock pick: BBRI, ICBP, JSMR, TLKM, BBYB, ARTO

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