Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat dan indeks Dow Jones sempat mencapai rekor tertinggi baru. Faktor positif diantaranya adalah meningkatnya kekhawatiran ekspektasi akan penurunan suku bunga The Fed pada bulan September, setelah Chairman The Fed Jerome Powell mengindikasikan data inflasi akhir-akhir ini menambah optimisme The Fed bahwa inflasi akan menuju target The Fed 2%. Powell juga menyatakan bahwa The Fed tidak akan menunggu inflasi mencapai 2% untuk mulai menurunkan suku bunga. Namun The Fed akan menantikan kepercayaan yang lebih besar bahwa inflasi akan menuju 2%, sebelum mulai menurunkan suku bunga. Sementara itu percobaan pembunuhan Trump yang tidak berhasil justru meningkatkan potensi kemenangannya di pemilu presiden AS tahun 2024 ini, yang berpotensi berakibat pada kebijakan perdagangan internasional yang lebih ketat serta pelonggaran beberapa aturan lainnya.

IHSG pada perdagangan Senin 15 Juli 2024 ditutup melemah 0,66% pada level 7278. Saham sektor infrastruktur mengalami koreksi terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor transportasi membukukan penguatan terbesar. Investor asing mencatatkan net buy Rp117,85 miliar termasuk transaksi di pasar non regular. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7240/7215 dan resistance 7280/7300. Stock pick: BBNI, BBTN, BRIS, PGAS, ADRO, JSMR

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