Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat setelah The Fed menyatakan akan menghentikan program pembelian obligasi pada Maret 2022 serta mengindikasikan akan menaikkan suku bunga sebanyak tiga kali pada tahun 2022 diikuti dengan kenaikan sebanyak tiga kali pada 2023. Tingginya laju inflasi dan potensi kenaikan suku bunga telah menjadi kekhawatiran besar bagi Wall Street pada akhir-akhir ini. Penyebaran virus varian baru juga menambah faktor negatif. Data penjualan ritel meningkat 0,3% pada bulan November, lebih rendah dari perkiraan. The Fed memprediksi laju inflasi pada tahun 2022 akan mencapai 2,6%, di atas target The Fed yang sebesar 2%, serta lebih tinggi dari proyeksi sebelumnya yang sebesar 2,2%. Tingkat pengangguran diperkirakan turun pada kisaran 3,5%. Sehingga The Fed memprediksi suku bunga akan meningkat dari saat ini pada 0%-0,25% akan menjadi 0,9% pada tahun 2022 dan menjadi 1,6% pada 2023 serta menjadi 2,1% pada 2024. Menurut The Fed, perekonomian AS tidak lagi membutuhkan peningkatan jumlah dukungan kebijakan. The Fed memprediksi ekonomi AS akan tumbuh 4% pada tahun 2022, meningkat dari prediksi sebelumnya 3,8%.
IHSG pada perdagangan Rabu 15 Desember 2021 ditutup menguat 0,16% pada level 6626. Saham sektor keuangan membukukan penguatan terbesar. Sedangkan saham sektor teknologi mengalami koreksi terbesar. Investor asing net sell Rp594,39 miliar. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6598/6585 dan resistance 6652/6670. Stock pick: BMRI, BBTN, BBRI, TLKM, ACES, INTP, TPIA, BRPT, ADRO

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