Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup mix, di mana indeks Dow Jones ditutup melemah sedangkan indeks S&P500 dan Nasdaq Composite ditutup menguat tipis. Pasar mencerna dimulainya earning season triwulan IV 2023 di mana beberapa emiten merilis laporan keuangan yang variatif. Data inflasi tingkat produsen secara tidak terduga mengalami penurunan dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya. Indeks PPI bulan Desember tercatat sebesar -0,1% mom dan 1% yoy. Indeks PPI ini memberikan indikasi positif terhadap data inflasi tingkat konsumen (CPI). Sehingga meningkatkan kembali harapan pasar akan penurunan suku bunga The Fed pada tahun ini. Sementara itu harga minyak mentah sempat menguat hingga level USD75/barel akibat meningkatnya ketegangan di Timur Tengah, namun kemudian ditutup melemah. Sedangkan harga emas menguat didorong oleh kondisi geopolitik yang memanas serta ekspektasi akan penurunan suku bunga The Fed.

Data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya retail sales, housing starts, building permits dan existing home sales. Dari domestik, data indikator ekonomi yang akan dirilis diantaranya neraca perdagangan serta Rapat Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 12 Januari 2024 ditutup menguat 0,29% pada level 7241. Saham sektor industri membukukan penguatan terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor transportasi mengalami koreksi terbesar. Investor asing mencatatkan net buy Rp1,122 triliun termasuk transaksi di pasar non reguler. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7200/7180 dan resistance 7260/7280. Stock pick: BBRI, BMRI, BRIS, BBCA, ASII, TLKM, ELSA, MEDC, AKRA, ESSA, UNVR

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