Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah tajam akibat data inflasi yang lebih tinggi dari estimasi mematahkan harapan investor akan laju inflasi yang mulai turun serta harapan The Fed akan memperlambat kenaikan suku bunganya. Data inflasi AS bulan Agustus tercatat sebesar 0,1% mom, meskipun harga BBM turun, lebih tinggi dari perkiraan yang deflasi 0,1% mom. Sehingga inflasi yoy menjadi 8,3%, lebih rendah dari bulan sebelumnya 8,5% namun lebih tinggi dari perkiraan 8,1%. Inflasi inti sebesar 0,6% mom, lebih tinggi dari estimasi 0,3% mom. Data tersebut menjelang pertemuan The Fed pada 20-21 September yang diperkirakan akan menaikkan suku bunga sebesar 0,75%. Dengan laju inflasi yang lebih tinggi dari estimasi tersebut, menimbulkan kekhawatiran bahwa The Fed akan melanjutkan kenaikan suku bunga secara agresif lebih lama dari perkiraan sebelumnya. Saham sektor teknologi mengalami koreksi terbesar akibat kekhawatiran akan kenaikan suku bunga The Fed yang masih akan berlanjut dengan agresif. Sementara itu harga minyak mentah dan emas melemah karena penguatan dollar AS akibat inflasi yang lebih tinggi memicu potensi kenaikan suku bunga yang lebih tinggi yang dikhawatirkan akan berpotensi mendorong pelemahan ekonomi dan menurunkan permintaan.

IHSG pada perdagangan Selasa 13 September 2022 ditutup menguat 0,88% pada level 7318. Saham sektor transportasi membukukan kenaikan terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor teknologi mengalami koreksi terbesar. Investor asing net buy Rp1,424 triliun termasuk transaksi di pasar non reguler. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7285/7260 dan resistance 7354/7370. Stock pick: BMRI, BBNI, BBCA, ANTM, INCO, TINS, ASII, ADRO, ADMR, SRTG, PTBA, HRUM

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