Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup melemah, yang antara lain disebabkan oleh kekhawatiran investor akan kenaikan kasus Covid-19 yang memperlambat pemulihan ekonomi serta kenaikan inflasi yang akan mendorong The Fed menarik kembali stimulusnya. Data PPI bulan Agustus menunjukkan inflasi di tingkat produsen meningkat 0,7%, melambat dari bulan sebelumnya yang sebesar 1%, namun masih lebih tinggi dibandingkan estimasi 0,6%. Namun secara yoy, PPI meningkat 8,3%, yang merupakan kenaikan tertinggi sejak 2010. Hal ini mengindikasikan laju inflasi tinggi masih akan terjadi akibat pandemi yang menekan jaringan suplay bagi produsen. Koreksi saham Apple, terkait dengan aturan toko aplikasinya, juga membebani indeks. Sementara itu harga minyak mentah menguat yang didorong oleh indikasi ketatnya suplay di AS akibat badai Ida serta meningkatnya harapan akan hubungan AS-China yang lebih baik yang akan mendorong perdagangan global.
Data indikator ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya CPI, industrial production, retail sales, initial claims, Michigan Sentiment. Pasar juga menantikan pertemuan The Fed pada 21-22 September mendatang. The Fed juga dijadwalkan akan melakukan diskusi publik mengenai pemulihan ekonomi dari pandemi pada 24 September 2021.

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