Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup melemah akibat kekhawatiran akan dampak masih berlanjutnya tren kenaikan suku bunga. Data inflasi PPI yang di atas estimasi memicu kekhawatiran bahwa The Fed masih akan menaikkan suku bunga secara agresif. Data inflasi di tingkat produsen (PPI) pada bulan November meningkat 0,3% mom sedangkan PPI inti mencapai 0,4% mom, sehingga secara tahunan masing-masing mencapai 7,4% yoy dan 6,2% yoy lebih rendah dari bulan sebelumnya 8,1% yoy dan 6,8% yoy. Pada pekan ini pasar akan menantikan hasil keputusan pertemuan The Fed pada Selasa-Rabu waktu AS, dimana diharapkan oleh pasar bahwa The Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga sebesar 0,5%, lebih rendah dari sebelumnya yang naik 0,75% selama empat kali berturut-turut. Selain itu pasar juga akan mencermati data inflasi CPI yang akan dirilis pada hari Selasa waktu AS. Sementara itu harga minyak mentah melemah akibat meningkatnya kekhawatiran akan potensi resesi ekonomi global. Harga emas menguat meskipun terjadi kenaikan dollar AS dan yield obligasi.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 9 Desember 2022 ditutup melemah 1,31% pada level 6715. Semua sektor melemah dengan pelemahan terbesar pada sektor energi. Investor asing net sell Rp1,92 triliun, termasuk transaksi di pasar non reguler. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6680/6600 dan resistance 6750/6780. Stock pick: BBCA, MDKA, SMGR, INKP, ADMR, HRUM, ESSA

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