Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup melemah cukup signifikan. Indeks S&P500 mencatatkan kinerja mingguan terburuk tahun ini dan Nasdaq Composite mencatatkan kinerja mingguan terburuk sejak tahun 2022. Data nonfarm payrolls yang dirilis pada akhir pekan lalu menunjukkan data pasar tenaga kerja yang mix sehingga membuat prediksi pasar akan kesehatan ekonomi AS dan prospek pemangkasan suku bunga The Fed dalam ketidakpastian. Sehingga hal tersebut membuat investor menjual aset-aset yang lebih berisiko. Saham sektor teknologi mengalami koreksi terbesar. Data nonfarm payrolls bulan Agustus menunjukkan penyerapan tenaga kerja sebanyak 142 ribu, naik dari bulan lalu yang sebesar 89 ribu, namun lebih rendah dari perkiraan yang sebanyak 165 ribu. Rata-rata upah per jam naik 0,4%, lebih tinggi dari bulan sebelumnya 0,2% dan dari estimasi 0,3%. Tingkat pengangguran turun menjadi 4,2% dari 4,3% dan sesuai dengan perkiraan. Investor masih memprediksi The Fed akan menurunkan suku bunga pada pertemuan bulan ini, namun terpecah apakah The Fed akan menurunkan suku bunga sebesar 0,25% atau 0,50%.

Sementara itu harga minyak mentah berlanjut melemah pada level terendah sejak Juni 2023 meskipun OPEC+ menunda kenaikan produksi sebesar 180 ribu bpd hingga Desember 2024. Permintaan minyak mentah oleh China yang merupakan importer minyak terbesar di dunia melemah, akibat transisi ke kendaraan listrik dengan cepat. Bank of America menurunkan proyeksi minyak mentah WTI tahun 2025 ke level USD71/barel dari USD75/barel. Sementara itu harga emas juga melemah akibat data nonfarm payrolls yang menimbulkan keraguan bahwa The Fed akan memangkas suku bunga langsung sebanyak 0,5% pada bulan ini.

Data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya CPI, PPI dan Michigan Sentiment. Dari domestik, data ekonomi yang akan dirilis diantaranya indeks keyakinan konsumen, penjualan eceran, penjualan sepeda motor dan penjualan mobil.

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