Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup menguat signifikan karena data tenaga kerja dan survey aktivitas ekonomi menimbulkan harapan inflasi akan mereda dan memberi indikasi bahwa kenaikan suku bunga The Fed mulai memberikan dampak. Data nonfarm payrolls bulan Desember menunjukkan terjadi penyerapan tenaga kerja sebanyak 223 ribu orang, sedikit lebih tinggi dari estimasi yang sebanyak 200 ribu orang. Namun kenaikan tingkat upah sebesar 0,3%, lebih rendah dari perkiraan yang sebesar 0,4%. Indeks ISM non manufaktur menunjukkan aktivitas industri jasa melemah pada bulan Desember, yaitu pada level 49,6 dan lebih rendah dari perkiraan yang berada di level 55. Data tersebut disambut positif oleh pasar karena mulai melambatnya data ekonomi mengindikasikan kenaikan suku bunga The Fed mulai menampakkan hasil memperlambat laju ekonomi sehingga laju inflasi diharapkan akan berlanjut turun dan kenaikan suku bunga The Fed akan segera berakhir jika laju inflasi telah mencapai target The Fed. Harga emas menguat karena ekspektasi pengetatan kebijakan moneter oleh The Fed akan mereda. Pada pekan ini pasar akan menantikan data ekonomi selanjutnya yaitu CPI dan intial claims.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 6 Januari 2023 ditutup menguat 0,46% pada level 6684. Saham sektor basic materials membukukan penguatan terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor infrastruktur mengalami koreksi terbesar. Investor asing net sell Rp505,18 miliar, termasuk transaksi di pasar non reguler. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6640/6598 dan resistance 6715/6735. Stock pick: BBCA, BMRI, BBRI, BBTN, INDF, UNVR, MDKA, CPIN, UNTR, SMGR

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