Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup menguat moderat. Data nonfarm payrolls yang lebih baik dari perkiraan, memadamkan harapan pasar sebelumnya bahwa The Fed dapat menurunkan suku bunga mulai Maret 2024. Data nonfarm payrolls bulan lalu tercatat penyerapan tenaga kerja sebanyak 216 ribu, meningkat dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya yang sebesar 173 ribu, serta lebih banyak dari perkiraan. Tingkat pengangguran tetap pada level 3,7%, lebih rendah dari perkiraan 3,8%. Tingkat rata-rata upah perjam naik 0,4%, lebih tinggi dari perkiraan 0,3%. Data tersebut membuat pasar akan merevisi prediksinya kapan The Fed akan mulai menurunkan suku bunga dan berapa kali penurunan suku bunga akan terjadi pada tahun ini. Sementara itu data indeks ISM non manufacturing bulan Desember masih berada di area ekspansi, yaitu di level 50,6, namun turun dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya di level 52,7. Harga minyak mentah naik akibat meningkatnya ketegangan di Timur Tengah. Harga emas ditutup menguat tipis, meskipun dollar AS dan yield US-Treasury meningkat.

Data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya CPI, PPI, initial claims. Dari domestik, data ekonomi yang akan dirilis diantaranya cadangan devisa, indeks keyakinan konsumen, penjualan ritel dan penjualan sepeda motor.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 5 Januari 2024 ditutup melemah 0,12% pada level 7350. Saham sektor kesehatan mengalami koreksi terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor keuangan membukukan penguatan terbesar. Investor asing mencatatkan net buy Rp1,398 triliun termasuk transaksi di pasar non reguler. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7320/7300 dan resistance 7380/7400. Stock pick: BBRI, BMRI, BBCA, BRIS, BBTN, EXCL, MTEL, MDKA

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