Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah, setelah sebelumnya sempat bergerak menguat. Koreksinya saham sektor teknologi mendorong indeks mengalami pelemahan. Yield US-Treasury berlanjut mengalami kenaikan pada level sebelum dirilisnya data nonfarm payrolls pekan lalu yang telah menimbulkan kecemasan akan perlambatan ekonomi AS. Indeks VIX, yang menunjukkan tingkat kecemasan pasar, naik pada level 28, setelah turun pada level 22 sehari sebelumnya, yang merupakan penurunan tajam dari level pada hari Senin di 65. Hal ini menunjukkan kekhawatiran investor mereda, namun masih lebih tinggi dibandingkan level pada awal bulan. Sentimen negatif masih berasal dari dampak carry trade global dan meningkatnya ketegangan politik. Carry trade mengacu pada operasi di mana investor meminjam dalam mata uang dengan suku bunga rendah, seperti yen Jepang, dan menginvestasikan kembali hasilnya pada aset dengan imbal hasil lebih tinggi di tempat lain. Strategi perdagangan ini sangat populer dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. Jika suku bunga acuan The Fed turun dengan cepat dikhawatirkan dalam jangka pendek dapat mengakibatkan para investor carry trade tersebut akan menjual aset-aset dengan cepat karena menipisnya spread antara suku bunga acuan Jepang dengan suku bunga acuan The Fed. Sementara itu harga minyak mentah menguat didorong oleh turunnya cadangan minyak AS serta meningkatnya ketegangan politik.

IHSG pada perdagangan Rabu 7 Agustus 2024 ditutup menguat 1,16% pada level 7212. Semua sektor menguat dengan kontribusi penguatan terbesar pada saham sektor industri. Investor asing mencatatkan net buy Rp341,09 miliar termasuk transaksi di pasar non regular. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7190/7150 dan resistance 7260/7290. Stock pick: BBCA, BMRI, BRIS, BBNI, TLKM, ISAT, EXCL, PGAS, MYOR, JSMR, INDF, ADRO, INDY

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