Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup menguat dipicu oleh data pasar tenaga kerja yang kuat dan meredanya kecemasan pasar akan konflik di Timur Tengah. Data nonfarm payrolls bulan September menunjukkan penyerapan tenaga kerja sebanyak 254 ribu, lebih banyak dari estimasi yang sebesar 150 ribu. Ini merupakan pertumbuhan terbesar dalam enam bulan terakhir serta lebih tinggi dari rata-rata kenaikan bulanan selama setahun terakhir. Tingkat pengangguran juga turun menjadi 4,1% dari bulan sebelumnya 4,2%. Data ini menguatkan komentar dari Chairman The Fed Jerome Powell bahwa ekonomi AS dalam kondisi solid. Sekaligus mengindikasikan bahwa The Fed tidak akan terburu-buru dalam menurunkan suku bunga, sehingga mematahkan ekspektasi akan adanya penurunan suku bunga secara signifikan pada pertemuan November mendatang.

Data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya initial claims, CPI, PPI dan Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Sedangkan dari domestik, data ekonomi yang akan dirilis diantaranya cadangan devisa, indeks keyakinan konsumen, penjualan eceran dan penjualan otomotif.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 4 Oktober 2024 ditutup melemah 0,63% pada level 7496. Saham sektor teknologi mengalami koreksi terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor kesehatan membukukan penguatan terbesar. Investor asing mencatatkan net sell Rp521,0 miliar termasuk transaksi di pasar non reguler. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7450/7400 dan resistance 7525/7550. Stock pick: CPIN, PGAS, ISAT, ICBP, MEDC, LSIP. Perlu diwaspadai jika pelemahan rupiah berlanjut.

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