Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup melemah data nonfarm payrolls yang lebih baik dari estimasi serta kekhawatiran pasar akan implikasinya terhadap kebijakan moneter The Fed. Data nonfarm payrolls pada bulan Mei menunjukkan penyerapan tenaga kerja sebanyak 390 ribu, lebih rendah dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya 436 ribu, namun lebih tinggi dibandingkan estimasi yang sebesar 325 ribu. Tingkat pengangguran tetap pada level 3,6%. Data yang lebih baik dari estimasi tersebut mendorong kecemasan pasar bahwa The Fed masih akan melanjutkan kenaikan suku bunga yang agresif. Data ekonomi yang bagus justru menjadi berita buruk bagi pasar saat ini. Ketiga indeks utama di bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah sepanjang pekan lalu, yaitu indeks Dow Jones -0,94%, indeks S&P500 -1,2% dan Nasdaq Composite -0,98% dibandingkan pekan sebelumnya. Indeks yield US-Treasury dengan tenor 10 tahun memguat di atas level 2,9%. Pada pekan ini pasar akan mencermati data inflasi, apakah penurunan inflasi pada bulan lalu akan berlanjut atau kembali mengalami kenaikan. Sementara itu harga minyak mentah berlanjut menguat meskipun OPEC+ berencana akan menaikkan output produksi. Sedangkan harga emas melemah karena data tenaga kerja meningkatkan potensi The Fed masih melanjutkan kenaikan suku bunga.

Dari domestik, data ekonomi yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini adalah cadangan devisa bulan Mei yang akan dirilis pada Rabu, indeks keyakinan konsumen pada Kamis dan penjualan ritel pada Jumat. IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 3 Juni 2022 ditutup menguat 0,48% pada level 7182. Saham sektor energi membukukan kenaikan terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor kesehatan mengalami koreksi terbesar. Investor asing net buy Rp176,61 miliar, termasuk transaksi di pasar negosiasi atas saham BRMS dengan net buy investor asing Rp1,08 triliun dan saham MARK dengan net sell investor asing senilai Rp1,56 triliun. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7170/7150 dan resistance 7270/7295. Stock pick: ADRO, TLKM, ISAT, BBRI, BBNI, BBCA, INDY

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