Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah signifikan akibat kekhawatiran akan resesi ekonomi AS telah menimbulkan goncangan di pasar global. Indeks bursa Jepang melemah tajam akibat penguatan yen Jepang, yang merupakan penurunan terbesar dalam satu hari sejak Black Monday di Wall Street pada tahun 1987, menambah kekhawatiran akan gejolak pasar keuangan global. Kecemasan akan ekonomi AS muncul setelah dirilisnya data tenaga kerja AS pada akhir pekan lalu yang di bawah estimasi, menimbulkan kekhawatiran bahwa The Fed terlalu lama mempertahankan suku bunga tinggi. Setelah Bank of Japan menaikkan suku bunga minggu lalu, mengurangi perbedaan suku bunga antara Jepang dan AS. Hal itu telah berkontribusi pada peningkatan nilai yen terhadap dollar AS, mengakhiri praktik trader meminjam dalam mata uang murah untuk membeli aset global lainnya. Hal ini menambah sentimen negatif di bursa global. Sementara itu yield US-Treasury melemah tajam seiring dengan kenaikan permintaan obligasi sebagai safe haven. Harga emas juga mengalami koreksi karena investor menjual semua aset yang masih untung untuk menutupi kerugian di aset lain. Namun koreksi harga emas diperkirakan bersifat sementara, karena di tengah kondisi ketidakpastian yang tinggi serta potensi penurunan suku bunga The Fed diperkirakan harga emas akan kembali menguat karena meningkatnya permintaan. Saat ini pasar memprediksi bahwa The Fed akan menurunkan suku bunga sebesar 0,5% pada pertemuan September mendatang.

IHSG pada perdagangan Selasa 6 Agustus 2024 ditutup melemah 3,4% pada level 7059. Semua sektor melemah dengan pelemahan terbesar pada saham sektor energi. Investor asing mencatatkan net sell Rp508,02 miliar termasuk transaksi di pasar non regular. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6996/6970 dan resistance 7100/7150. Stock pick: BMRI, BBNI, BRIS, SMRA, JPFA, JSMR

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