Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah akibat sentimen negatif kenaikan yield US-Treasury serta kembali munculnya kekhawatiran akan perang dagang AS-China. Kenaikan yield obligasi pemerintah AS ini antara lain dipicu oleh data ekonomi akhir-akhir ini yang menunjukkan meningkatnya pengeluaran masyarakat, pertumbuhan aktivitas manufaktur serta inflasi yang meningkat, sehingga meningkatkan potensi pengetatan kebijakan moneter oleh The Fed lebih cepat dari perkiraan. Saham sektor teknologi dan jasa komunikasi mengalami koreksi terbesar seiring dengan kenaikan yield obligasi pemerintah AS tersebut. Sementara itu AS menyatakan bahwa China tidak memenuhi kesepakatan perdagangan fase I yang dicapai pada Januari 2020, dimana seharusnya China membeli produk-produk AS senilai USD200 miliar dalam periode 1 Januari 2020 hingga 31 Desember 2021. AS sedang mengevaluasi tindakan terhadap China, termasuk kemungkinan menerapkan tarif tambahan. Hal tersebut menimbulkan kekhawatiran pasar akan kembali adanya perang dagang AS-China. Harga minyak mentah kembali menguat setelah OPEC+ sepakat untuk tetap dengan rencananya menambah output produksi minyak secara bertahap sebanyak 400 ribu bpd pada November, meskipun konsumen meminta lebih banyak minyak dan kenaikan harga minyak mentah mengancam pemulihan ekonomi dari pandemi.
IHSG pada perdagangan Senin 4 Oktober 2021 ditutup menguat 1,67% pada level 6332. Saham sektor properti membukukan kenaikan terbesar. Sedangkan saham sektor teknologi mengalami koreksi terbesar. Investor asing net buy Rp1,996 triliun. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6285/6270 dan resistance 6360/6390. Stock pick: BBRI, TLKM, BBCA, JSMR, ASII, ADRO, INDF, ICBP, MEDC, INCO, ANTM

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