Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup melemah signifikan akibat meningkatnya kecemasan bahwa ekonomi AS akan masuk dalam resesi, setelah dirilisnya data nonfarm payrolls yang di bawah estimasi. Data nonfarm payrolls bulan Juli menunjukkan penyerapan tenaga kerja sebanyak 114 ribu, turun dari bulan sebelumnya 179 ribu serta di bawah estimasi 170 ribu. Rata-rata tingkat upah per jam sebesar 0,2%, lebih rendah dari estimasi yang sebesar 0,3%. Dan tingkat pengangguran naik pada level 4,3% dari 4,1%, yang merupakan level tertinggi sejak Oktober 2021. Yield US-Treasury mengalami penurunan seiring dengan kenaikan harga obligasi akibat kenaikan permintaan obligasi sebagai investasi yang dianggap lebih aman, serta untuk mengantisipasi penurunan suku bunga The Fed.

Data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya indeks ISM Non-Manufacturing dan initial claims. Dari domestik, data ekonomi yang akan dirilis diantaranya pertumbuhan ekonomi Q2/2024, cadangan devisa, indeks keyakinan konsumen, penjualan ritel, penjualan mobil dan penjualan sepeda motor.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 2 Agustus 2024 ditutup melemah 0,24% pada level 7308. Saham sektor transportasi mengalami koreksi terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor energi membukukan penguatan terbesar. Investor asing mencatatkan net buy Rp474,41 miliar termasuk transaksi di pasar non regular. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7250/7220 dan resistance 7325/7350. Stock pick: BMRI, BBNI, BRIS, BBRI, ADRO, PTBA, ITMG, ADMR, TPIA, SMRA, BSDE, CTRA

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