Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah akibat kenaikan yield obligasi pemerintah AS hingga level tertinggi sejak tahun 2007 yang meningkatkan kekhawatiran tingginya suku bunga pinjaman berdampak negatif terhadap sektor perumahan dan meningkatkan risiko resesi. Yield US-Treasury dengan tenor 10 tahun naik pada level 4,8%, yang merupakan level tertinggi dalam 16 tahun terakhir. Yield US-Treasury dengan tenor 30 tahun juga mencapai level tertinggi sejak tahun 2007 pada level 4,925%. Rata-rata bunga pinjaman KPR fixed dengan tenor 30 tahun telah mendekati level 8%. Katalis terbaru yang mendorong kenaikan yield obligasi adalah pasar tenaga kerja yang masih kuat sehingga dapat meningkatkan potensi The Fed untuk kembali menaikkan suku bunga. Sementara itu harga minyak mentah rebound. Sedangkan harga emas berlanjut melemah akibat penguatan dollar AS dan yield US-Treasury, sebelumnya akhirnya rebound pagi ini.

IHSG pada perdagangan Selasa 3 Oktober 2023 ditutup melemah 0,29% pada level 6940. Saham sektor energi mengalami koreksi terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor properti membukukan kenaikan terbesar. Investor asing mencatatkan net buy Rp170,56 miliar termasuk transaksi di pasar non reguler. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6915/6900 dan resistance 6970/6995. Stock pick: BMRI, BBCA, BBRI, BBTN, ADMR, TLKM, ISAT, EXCL, BSDE

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