Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup menguat yang antara lain dipicu oleh rebound dari tekanan jual bulan lalu serta optimisme akan pemulihan ekonomi setelah diberitakan adanya obat Covid-19 dari Merck mengurangi risiko rawat inap dan kematian hingga 50% untuk pasien dengan gejala sedang atau ringan. Berita tersebut mendorong penguatan pada saham yang sensitif dengan pemulihan ekonomi, seperti saham sektor perjalanan dan perbankan. Sementara itu data personal spending bulan Agustus meningkat 0,8%, di atas estimasi yang sebesar 0,7%. Sedangkan indeks PCE prices yang merupakan indikator inflasi, untuk bulan Agustus tercatat sebesar 0,4% mom, sehingga mencapai 4,3% yoy yang merupakan level tertinggi selama 30 tahun terakhir. Untuk PCE price inti juga mencapai 0,3% mom dan 3,6% yoy. Indeks ISM manufaktur bulan September meningkat pada level 61,1dari bulan sebelumnya 59,9, serta di atas konsensus yang berada pada level 59,5. Pada pekan ini data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis diantaranya ISM non manufacturing index, ADP Employement, nonfarm payrolls dan unemployment rate.
IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 1 Oktober 2021 ditutup melemah 0,92% pada level 6228. Saham sektor consumer cyclical mencatatkan pelemahan terbesar. Sedangkan saham sektor properti membukukan penguatan terbesar. Investor asing net sell Rp10,513 triliun, termasuk transaksi investor asing di pasar negosiasi saham SUPR senilai Rp 12,17 triliun. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6180/6160 dan resistance 6262/6270. Stock pick: BBRI, TLKM, BBCA, JSMR, ADRO

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