Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup menguat hingga mencapai level tertinggi pada tahun ini. Meskipun adanya komentar Chairman The Fed Jerome Powell yang menyatakan bahwa terlalu awal untuk mengatakan The Fed akan menurunkan suku bunga, bahkan The Fed dapat menaikkan suku bunga lagi jika diperlukan. Namun pasar meresponnya secara positif karena menimbulkan harapan tren kenaikan suku bunga The Fed telah berakhir meskipun The Fed tidak akan menurunkan suku bunga dalam waktu dekat karena ekonomi AS masih solid. Yield US-Treasury dengan tenor 10 tahun kembali mengalami penurunan. Sementara itu indeks PMI Manufaktur China bulan November secara tak terduga naik pada level ekspansi yaitu 50,7 dari bulan sebelumnya 49,5. Harga minyak mentah melanjutkan koreksinya akibat kecewa dengan keputusan OPEC+. Sedangkan harga emas menguat karena spekulasi pasar bahwa The Fed dapat menurunkan suku bunga mulai Maret 2024.

Data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya indeks ISM non manufacturing, ADP Employment, nonfarm payrolls dan unemployment rate. Sedangkan dari domestik dijadwalkan akan dirilis data cadangan devisa, keyakinan konsumen dan penjualan ritel.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 1 Desember 2023 ditutup melemah 0,29% pada level 7059. Saham sektor basic material mengalami koreksi terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor teknologi membukukan kenaikan terbesar. Investor asing mencatatkan net sell Rp213,29 miliar termasuk transaksi di pasar non reguler. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7020/7000 dan resistance 7085/7100. Stock pick: BBRI, BBNI, BBCA, NCKL, EMTK, ASII, TLKM, ISAT, CTRA, SMRA, SMGR

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