Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup menguat di mana indeks Dow Jones sempat mencapai rekor tertinggi baru dan ditutup pada level tertinggi penutupan. Selama bulan Agustus lalu, indeks juga mengalami penguatan setelah sempat bergerak dengan fluktuasi tinggi. Indeks PCE prices yang merupakan indikator inflasi bagi The Fed, pada bulan Juli tercatat sebesar 0,2% mom dan 2,5% yoy, sesuai dengan estimasi. Indeks PCE prices inti juga tercatat sebesar 0,2% mom. Data ini menimbulkan keraguan di pasar bahwa The Fed akan melakukan pemangkasan suku bunga dengan agresif. Sementara itu harga minyak mentah kembali mengalami koreksi karena ekspektasi OPEC+ akan menaikkan suplay mulai Oktober mendatang. Sedangkan harga emas juga melemah karena penguatan dollar AS dan yield US-Treasury.

Data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya indeks ISM manufacturing, ADP Employement change, indeks ISM non manufacturing, nonfarm payrolls dan unemployment rate. Dari domestik, data ekonomi yang akan dirilis diantaranya indeks PMI manufaktur, inflasi dan cadangan devisa.

Selama bulan Agustus 2024 lalu, IHSG menguat 5,72% mom, sehingga selama periode Januari-Agustus 2024 IHSG menguat 5,47% ytd. IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 30 Agustus 2024 ditutup menguat 0,56% pada level 7670. Saham sektor infrastruktur membukukan penguatan terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor energi mengalami koreksi terbesar. Investor asing mencatatkan net buy Rp11,21 triliun termasuk transaksi di pasar non regular. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7650/7630 dan resistance 7690/7715. Stock pick: BBRI, BMRI, BBCA, BBTN, ADRO, TPIA, BREN, TLKM, ISAT, ASII

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