Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup mix di mana indeks Dow Jones dan S&P500 ditutup melemah sedangkan Nasdaq Composite ditutup menguat tipis. Sebelumnya ketiga indeks utama tersebut bergerak menguat setelah data indeks core PCE bulan Agustus tercatat sebesar 0,1% mom, di bawah estimasi 0,2% mom serta 3,9% yoy yang sesuai estimasi. Namun kekhawatiran akan potensi government shutdown serta suku bunga yang masih tinggi menjadi sentimen negatif. Para pemimpin Partai Republik di DPR AS gagal meloloskan RUU anggaran jangka pendek pada hari Jumat sehingga memperkuat kekhawatiran bahwa legislatif tidak akan mencapai kesepakatan anggaran tepat waktu yang dapat menimbulkan government shutdown. Jika terjadi government shutdown, pasar khawatir akan berdampak terhadap perlambatan ekonomi AS. Semakin lama shutdown berlangsung akan semakin besar dampaknya terhadap ekonomi.

Data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya indeks ISM manufacturing, ADP Employment change, indeks ISM non manufacturing, nonfarm payrolls dan tingkat pengangguran. Sedangkan dari domestik, akan dirilis data indeks PMI manufaktur, inflasi, kunjungan wisatawan dan cadangan devisa.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 29 September 2023 ditutup menguat 0,03% pada level 6939. Saham sektor transportasi membukukan kenaikan terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor basic materials mengalami koreksi terbesar. Investor asing mencatatkan net sell Rp762,97 miliar termasuk transaksi di pasar non reguler. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6915/6900 dan resistance 6960/6980. Stock pick: BMRI, BBNI, BBCA, BRIS, AUTO, DRMA, ADRO, JSMR, TLKM, ISAT, EXCL

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