Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup melemah. Selama tahun 2022, indeks Dow Jones ditutup melemah 8,78%, indeks S&P500 melemah 19,44% dan Nasdaq Composite turun 33,1%. Kinerja indeks tahun lalu merupakan kinerja terburuk sejak tahun 2008. Tingginya inflasi, kenaikan suku bunga yang agresif, ketegangan geopolitik dan data ekonomi yang variatif menjadi faktor-faktor yang mendorong koreksi indeks selama tahun lalu. Fluktuasi indeks diyakini oleh investor masih akan berlanjut pada tahun ini di tengah kekhawatiran akan resesi ekonomi akibat masih berlanjutnya tren kenaikan suku bunga oleh The Fed. Indeks diperkirakan masih berpotensi melanjutkan pelemahan sebelum terjadinya rebound ketika resesi benar terjadi atau ketika The Fed mulai menghentikan kenaikan suku bunganya.

Data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya ISM manufacturing index, ADP Employment change, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate dan ISM non manufacturing index. Dari domestik, data indikator ekonomi yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya indeks PMI manufaktur, inflasi Desember dan kunjungan wisatawan.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 30 Desember 2022 ditutup melemah 0,14% pada level 6850. Saham sektor consumer noncyclical mengalami koreksi terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor infrastruktur membukukan penguatan terbesar. Investor asing net sell Rp767,28 miliar, termasuk transaksi di pasar non reguler. Sepanjang tahun 2022, IHSG menguat 4,09%. Saham sektor energi membukukan kenaikan terbesar yaitu 100,05%. Sedangkan saham sektor teknologi mengalami koreksi terbesar yaitu 42,61%. Selama tahun 2022 lalu, investor asing net buy Rp60,57 triliun termasuk transaksi di pasar non regular yang sekitar Rp16 triliun. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6820/6785 dan resistance 6890/6950. Stock pick: BBRI, BBTN, ISAT, ASII, INDF, ICBP, ADMR, ADRO, PTBA, AKRA

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