Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street ditutup menguat moderat. Selama bulan September 2024, indeks Dow Jones +1,9%, indeks S&P500 +2% dan Nasdaq Composite +2,7%. Sebelumnya indeks bergerak melemah dan ditutup menguat dipicu oleh komentar Chairman The Fed Jerome Powell. Powell menyatakan bahwa penurunan suku bunga lebih lanjut mungkin akan terjadi, namun memperingatkan bahwa bank sentral tidak memiliki jalur yang telah ditetapkan. Jika perekonomian bergerak seperti yang diharapkan, Powell memperkirakan akan terjadi dua kali penurunan suku bunga sebesar 0,25% pada tahun ini. Powell masih optimis dengan kekuatan ekonomi AS serta melihat laju inflasi akan berlanjut menurun. Sementara itu bursa China libur National Day pada tanggal 1-7 Oktober 2024.

IHSG pada perdagangan Senin 30 September 2024 ditutup melemah 2,19% pada level 7527. Saham sektor energi mengalami koreksi terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor transportasi membukukan penguatan terbesar. Investor asing mencatatkan net sell Rp3,10 triliun termasuk transaksi di pasar non reguler. Beberapa faktor yang diduga mendorong pelemahan IHSG pada perdagangan kemarin diantaranya adalah adanya stimulus ekonomi di China mendorong pemodal asing melakukan rotasi investasi dari investasi di negara Asia lainnya ke China, profit taking lanjutan dari bursa efek di Indonesia, menjelang pergantian pemerintahan baru pada 20 Oktober nanti, serta menantikan kebijakan short selling di BEI. Pada bulan September lalu, IHSG ditutup melemah 1,86% mom. Namun untuk periode Januari-September 2024, IHSG masih menguat 3,51% ytd. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7500/7480 dan resistance 7550/7580. Stock pick: BMRI, BBTN, ASII, INDY, BSDE, SMRA, JSMR, ANTM, INCO, TINS

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