Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada perdagangan kemarin ditutup variatif, dimana indeks Dow Jones dan S&P500 melemah sedangkan Nasdaq Composite ditutup menguat. Indeks bergerak fluktuatif dengan investor mencermati perkembangan konflik Rusia-Ukraina, termasuk adanya sanksi baru dari AS dan sekutunya terhadap Rusia. Saham perbankan melemah, sedangkan saham yang terkait dengan sektor pertahanan menguat. Negosiasi tahap I antara Rusia-Ukraina yang berlangsung di perbatasan Belarus telah berakhir kemarin, dan direncanakan akan dilanjutkan ke tahap II. Bank sentral Rusia menaikkan suku bunga dari 9,5% menjadi 20% sebagai langkah darurat karena pelemahan tajam rubel terhadap dollar AS mendekati 16% akibat adanya berbagai sanksi ekonomi terhadap Rusia dari beberapa negara yang menargetkan sistem keuangan Rusia. Akibat situasi pasar dalam ketidakpastian, telah mendorong kenaikan permintaan akan safe haven seperti obligasi pemerintah AS dan emas, sehingga mendorong turunnya yield US-Treasury dan kenaikan harga emas. Harga minyak mentah juga mengalami kenaikan akibat kekhawatiran akan terganggunya pasokan minyak dan gas dari Rusia. Harga batu bara juga melanjutkan kenaikannya setelah beberapa negara Eropa berencana akan memperpanjang penggunaan batu bara karena khawatir dengan gangguan suplay gas dari Rusia.

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada akhir pekan lalu ditutup menguat, melanjutkan rebound setelah bergerak fluktuatif pada pekan lalu. Pasar masih mencermati seberapa jauh dampak serangan Rusia ke Ukraina terhadap risiko ekonomi dan keuangan. Indeks yang oversold akibat koreksi pada pekan lalu, telah mendorong investor untuk kembali melakukan pembelian saham. Menambah faktor positif, dikabarkan Rusia akan melakukan negosiasi dengan Ukraina. Sementara itu data personal spending AS bulan Januari meningkat 2,1%, setelah bulan sebelummya turun 0,8%, serta lebih baik dibandingkan estimasi yang sebesar 1,5%. Indeks PCE Prices bulan Januari naik 6,1% yoy dari 5,8% yoy, sedangkan indeks PCE Prices inti naik 5,2% yoy dari 4,9% yoy. Data indikator ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya indeks ISM manufacturing, ADP Employment change, indeks ISM non manufacturing, nonfarm payrolls dan unemployement rate.

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 25 Februari 2022 ditutup menguat 1,03% pada level 6888. Saham sektor transportasi membukukan penguatan terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor consumer non cyclicals mengalami koreksi terbesar. Investor asing net buy Rp1,081 triliun. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 6825/6790 dan resistance 6930/6965. Stock pick: BBRI, BBCA, BBNI, BBTN, TLKM, SMGR, MDKA

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