Market Review and Prediction

Indeks di bursa Wall Street pada perdagangan akhir pekan lalu ditutup melemah. Namun selama bulan Juni 2024, indeks Dow Jones +1,12% mom, indeks S&P500 +3,47% mom dan Nasdaq Composite +5,96% mom. Sedangkan selama semester I/2024, indeks Dow Jones +3,79% ytd, indeks S&P500 +14,48% ytd dan Nasdaq Composite +18,13% ytd. Sementara itu indeks PCE prices pada bulan Mei stagnan dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya sehingga secara tahunan menjadi 2,6% yoy turun dari bulan sebelumnya 2,7% yoy. Sedangkan indeks PCE price inti, di luar makanan dan energi, tercatat sebesar 0,1% mom dan 2,6% yoy, turun dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya yang sebesar 0,3% mom dan 2,8% yoy. Inflasi bulan Mei ini merupakan yang terendah lebih dari tiga tahun terakhir. Data inflasi ini meningkatkan harapan pasar bahwa The Fed berpotensi menurunkan suku bunga pada bulan September mendatang. Indeks Michigan Sentiment bulan Juni naik pada level 68,2 dari 65,6.

Data ekonomi AS yang akan dirilis pada pekan ini diantaranya indeks ISM manufacturing, ADP Employment, FOMC minutes, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate dan indeks ISM non manufacturing. Dari domestik, akan dirilis data ekonomi diantaranya indeks PMI manufaktur, inflasi Juni dan cadangan devisa.

Selama bulan Juni IHSG menguat 1,33% mom, namun selama semester I/2024 IHSG melemah 2,88% ytd. IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat 28 Juni 2024 ditutup menguat 1,37% pada level 7063. Saham sektor transportasi membukukan penguatan terbesar, sedangkan saham sektor kesehatan menjadi satu-satunya sektor yang melemah. Investor asing mencatatkan net sell Rp1,728 triliun termasuk transaksi di pasar non regular. Pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran support 7030/7000 dan resistance 7100/7120. Stock pick: BBRI, BMRI, BBCA, BBNI, BBTN, TLKM, ISAT, INDF, ADRO, NCKL, MBMA, ANTM, INCO, JSMR

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